Asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth asteroid, could strike the planet in December 2032 as it approaches during another journey around its orbit, according to NASA. The asteroid is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet (40 – 90 meters) wide and “has a very small chance” of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, the space agency said.

What is a near-Earth asteroid?

A near-Earth asteroid is an asteroid in an orbit that brings it into Earth’s region of the Solar System. According to NASA Asteroid 2024 YR4 is big enough to cause “localized damage in the unlikely event that it should impact Earth.”

According to reports, the chances of Asteroid 2024 YR4 crashing into Earth was 1.3% in late January, which marginally rose to 1.7% in February. By the second week of the month, scientists learnt that it reached 2.3%, The New York Times said in a report. In other words, there is a one-in-45 chance of Asteroid 2024 YR4 striking the only known planet to sustain life.

“As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. It is possible that 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on the NASA JPL asteroid risk list. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise,” NASA said on its website in February.

How do scientists predict asteroid threats to Earth?

NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, tasked with making orbitary calculations about possible collisions, are confident that the chances of a crash would diminish over the years. The feeling is mutual at the Near Erath Object Coordination Centre of the European Space Agency, which is jointly tracking space objects like asteroids with NASA, employing a team of cartographers.

When an asteroid or comet is spotted, NASA and the European Space Agency ask their teams to use the automated orbital dynamics software to track its path. These teams predict the many possible routes that the space objects are likely to take, helping their parent agencies to understand whether they pose a threat to Earth or not. Usually, most comets and asteroids slide away from Earth as they orbit — saving the scientists further headaches.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ABOUT YR4 ON NASA’S WEBSITE

Meanwhile, in a separate development, Reuters said that another near-Earth asteroid named Bennu is currently making its closest approach to Earth every six years at about 186,000 miles (299,000 km) away. It might come even closer in the future, with scientists estimating a one-in-2,700 chance of a collision with Earth in September 2182.

Aside from the immediate devastation, it estimated that such an impact would inject 100-400 million tons of dust into the atmosphere, causing disruptions in climate, atmospheric chemistry and global photosynthesis lasting three to four years.

“The likelihood that a Bennu-sized asteroid will strike Earth is quite small at 0.037%. Even though small, the potential impact would be very serious and would likely lead to massive longer-term food insecurity on our planet and climate conditions that are similar to those seen only for some of the largest volcanic eruptions in the last 100,000 years,” Axel Timmermann, a climate physicist and ICCP director told the news agency.”So it is important to think about the risk,” he added.