Astrophysicists believe that advanced alien civilisations might only have thousand years more on their planets until they become uninhabitable due to climate change, according to a recent study. A simulation on the trajectory of technological growth and energy consumption by these hypothetical societies, posted on “Astrobites,” contributed to this scary finding. Even renewable energy sources can go very wrong because more of any energy they produce generates waste heat, and the Earth cannot cool by natural means.
This research was posted on the preprint server arXiv and has yet to be reviewed by any peers.



Comparison to Human Consumption


Some of the leading authors of the research are Manasvi Lingam, an astrophysicist at Florida Tech, and Amedeo Balbi, associate professor of astronomy and astrophysics at Tor Vergata University of Rome, drawing comparisons between human energy consumption and perhaps what fate holds for societies elsewhere in space. Humankind’s consumption of energy has risen sharply since the 1800s, rising to about 180,000 TWh in estimation for 2023. Such a level of energy production, mainly through fossil fuels, has steepened the curves of global warming to unsustainable levels. Even switching to renewable resources would not halt this growth and would also result in increased consumption of energy.


The Role of Thermodynamics in Planetary Health


The second law of thermodynamics makes this phenomenon work. It shows that no energy system is perfect but a part of it always leaks out as heat. To represent this aspect well, Lingam compares society to a leaky bathtub: when it is filled up to overflowing even the slightest leak can have disastrous results.


Challenges for Astrobiology and the Search for Life


This research stretches beyond the mere contemplation of how long the alien life would survive. Rather, such research throws out a challenge to astrobiologists to look for intelligent life outside Earth.
Considering the time span as very short in terms of survival, scientists state that quite many potential civilizations are likely going to destroy themselves before they would have been discovered.


A Sustainable Path Forward for Civilizations


For instance, Lingam underlines that after all, there is an alternative: balanced growth may help civilizations coexist sustainably with their environment and therefore live for millennia.



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