Wholesale Inflation March 2026: India has seen a jump in wholesale inflation in March due to increase in fuel prices and due to this, the central bank may keep the interest rates stable in the coming years. This information was given by economists on Wednesday. Rahul Agarwal, senior economist at ICRA, said the rise in wholesale inflation was broad based, with fuel and energy prices rising along with crude petroleum and natural gas.

He further said that out of the 175 basis points increase in core inflation in March 2026 compared to February 2026, these two groups together contributed 150 basis points.

What was the food inflation rate in March?

The senior economist further said that food inflation remained stable at 1.8 percent in March, while wholesale inflation in non-food items increased to a 41-month high of 3.7 percent from 3.3 percent in February. On a sequential basis, the main index rose 0.7 percent in March, in line with the average over the past three months. Import costs may increase due to higher global energy prices and accompanying increases in shipping, freight and input costs. Due to this, we may see further increase in wholesale inflation in April.

Impact of Middle East crisis visible

Rajni Sinha, chief economist at CareAge Ratings, expressed similar concerns, saying the latest wholesale inflation data reflects a more severe impact of the West Asia crisis, which has seen a sharper rise than retail inflation. He said this difference is due to sharp increase in wholesale diesel and other commercial fuel prices, while retail petrol and diesel prices have remained unchanged.

According to Rajni Sinha, refineries increased wholesale diesel prices by more than 25 percent in March, while the price of domestic gas cylinders increased by Rs 60 and the price of commercial LPG cylinders increased by a total of Rs 310. He further said that despite an early resolution of the West Asia crisis, global crude oil prices are likely to average $85-90 per barrel in FY 2027.

Burden of rising oil prices

The chief economist of CareAge Ratings said that the burden of high global crude oil prices will fall on households, the government and oil marketing companies. Sinha also said that oil marketing companies can tolerate crude oil prices of $100-105 per barrel due to strong refining margins. He has estimated that assuming the price of crude oil at $ 90 per barrel, the wholesale inflation rate in fiscal year 2027 will be around 5 percent on average.

Will RBI change the repo rate?

On the monetary policy front, he said that reserve Bank of India The government is likely to maintain status quo in policy rates. Given the growth concerns, the RBI will not be in a hurry to change interest rates. If the growth outlook falls well below long-term potential growth, the central bank may explore cutting interest rates at the end of the fiscal year.