It's perhaps rather obvious to suggest that the loss of his closest remaining ally at Red Bull might cause Max Verstappen to give even more serious consideration to walking away from Formula 1. And that certainly seems to be the consensus when speaking to sources about the impact that this week's seismic news might have. But there is also another potential side-effect which has made what seemed only a few days ago to be an impossibility a rather more realistic prospect.
After last December's departure of Helmut Marko, the long-serving team adviser and a second father figure to Verstappen, the one truly bulletproof relationship Verstappen had left at Red Bull was that with race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase. He still has it now, but only for a limited time after it was confirmed on Thursday that 'GP' has accepted an offer to join McLaren.
Not that he needed it, but he will go with Verstappen's blessing. They have worked closely for a decade, winning four world championships and 71 Grands Prix together - as much as the Dutchman will be sad to see Lambiase go when his contract expires at the end of 2027, he cannot begrudge his great mate a fresh challenge. And sources suggest he won't.
What he will surely now do is consider what is truly left for him now at Red Bull. Verstappen has said many times before that he would love to spend his whole career with Red Bull if he feels like he can.
One such occasion was during an exclusive interview with me at the 2024 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, two weeks after securing the most recent of his four titles, when he said: "I believe in this team and I really hope that we can stay together for a very long time."
A lot has changed in the 16 months since, but I've been told that sentence still rings true.
But it's also a reality that Verstappen has no interest in staying in F1 just to drive about in the midfield, and that is Red Bull's reality right now. For all the predictions about their engines, built in-house for the first time, they are actually largely satisfied with the performance they are getting on that front. The chassis, on the other hand, is a long way off where they need it to be.
The pressure is on for Pierre Wache, Red Bull's technical director, who took over fully as the person ultimately responsible for car design when Adrian Newey jumped ship. And the consequences for failure are more significant than just championship points and places: months more of struggling to overtake an Alpine will make the situation even less tenable as far as Verstappen is concerned.
The Dutchman has a contract until 2028, but it is widely known that there are performance-related clauses that can be triggered before then, should he decide to leave. This is common in F1 as drivers always want to insure themselves against being locked into a seat for years in the event that their team's performance suddenly falls off a cliff.
Having consulted multiple people familiar with the situation, it's understood that Verstappen will have a window between August and October this year during which he can activate an exit clause if he is lower than second in the drivers' championship, which seems likely given Red Bull's current lack of pace.
Maybe this will be the year that Verstappen, despite being only 28 (turning 29 in September), decides he's had enough of F1. He's been in the sport for more than a decade, having started so young - he was 17 years and 166 days old when he made his F1 debut back in 2015 - and has made no effort to hide his disdain for the new regulations and cars that came into use this year. And, as mentioned, Lambiase's impending exit is just one more reason to go.
But amid all the talk about whether Verstappen might retire from F1, it has been largely forgotten in recent times that another possibility is that he stays in the sport, but with another team. He will not be short of options - teams up and down the grid will be falling over each other and throwing money at the four-time world champion to try to land his signature.
Links to Mercedes will surely resurface in the coming months, given they have the best car and engine in F1 right now and that is what Verstappen wants. Though boss Toto Wolff is delighted with his pairing of George Russell and Kimi Antonelli right now, he will certainly consider a swoop if the Dutchman does finally become available. And Aston Martin will definitely join the race as ambitious owner Lawrence Stroll wants a new superstar driver to drive Newey-designed F1 cars after Fernando Alonso retires.
Is Ferrari a possibility? Perhaps, if Lewis Hamilton were to retire or Charles Leclerc finally gave up on the Scuderia, thought neither seems likely right now. The other big team is McLaren which hasn't been seriously linked with Verstappen in recent years. That's partly because Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri both have long-term deals, and also due to scepticism within the Dutchman's camp about joining the Woking-based squad and working under Zak Brown, who has been less-than-complimentary about both Red Bull and Verstappen at times over the last two years.
A week ago, the idea of the four-time champ joining McLaren in the next year or two would have been quickly laughed off. Now that Lambiase is heading there to work as chief racing officer? Still improbable as it stands, but not impossible. Continuing that highly successful partnership would appeal, as would reunions with chief technical officer Rob Marshall and sporting director Will Courtenay - both poached from Red Bull in recent years.
It would require one of Norris and Piastri to move on. The latter definitely feels like the more likely candidate as, even though the accusations of sabotage from Australia last season were over-dramatic and baseless, it does always feel like Norris is Brown's favourite. And the Brit was the one who, in a straight fight last term, beat the other to become world champion.
Half the grid are out of contract this year and the driver market is expected to be rather active as a result. Verstappen will be a key player in all that as teams may want to hold out in case the Dutchman does join one of the other top outfits and suddenly a big-name star like Piastri or one of the Mercedes drivers suddenly becomes available. They will all have to be patient, while Red Bull in turn must act swiftly to make sure their most valuable asset doesn't also slip through their fingers.
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