Newswise — ALBANY, N.Y. (March 26, 2026) — As conditions in the tropical Pacific rapidly shift, strong El Niño conditions are predicted to emerge by this summer.

Paul Roundy, professor at the University at Albany’s Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, studies how interactions between the tropical ocean and atmosphere influence global weather, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

ENSO is a climate pattern that swings between a warm phase (El Niño) and a cool phase (La Niña), both of which can significantly impact weather worldwide.

Roundy said current weak La Niña conditions in the tropical eastern Pacific are rapidly transitioning toward what could become a major El Niño, potentially exceeding the strongest events of the last century.

“Westerly wind bursts — periods of strong winds blowing west to east over the western Pacific — are pushing warm waters onto the equator and driving them eastward, contributing to rapid warming in the eastern Pacific,” he said. “This pattern points to a likely strong, eastern Pacific-centered El Niño, similar to the major events of 1982 and 1997.”

Roundy said if the pattern continues, it could favor a quieter-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season, increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall in California, and bring milder winter conditions across the northern U.S.

“Every El Niño event is different, and this one will no doubt yield surprises, but it is unusual to see such confidence in a developing event this time of year,” Roundy said.

Roundy is available for phone or live/recorded interviews. UAlbany also offers an on-campus television studio for remote interviews.

About the University at Albany:

The University at Albany is a Carnegie-classified Research 1 institution driven by academic excellence, pioneering research and scientific discovery, and service to community. UAlbany’s world-class faculty experts and students are creating new knowledge in fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor engineering, atmospheric and environmental sciences, cybersecurity, public health, public administration and social welfare while deepening our understanding of our world through scholarship and creative activity in the social sciences and humanities. As one of the most diverse public research institutions in the nation, the University is a national leader in educational equity and social mobility. For over 180 years, UAlbany has molded bright, curious and engaged students and launched them toward success.

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