Medicine Price: Obesity and diabetes are now widespread issues in the country. The medications to manage these conditions are quite pricey. However, there’s good news: treatment is set to become more affordable. India’s market for GLP-1 diabetes and weight loss medications is about to see a surge in new options. This week marks the expiration of the patent for Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide drug, which will open the door for low-cost generic alternatives. As a result, over 40 companies are gearing up to introduce more than 50 different brands.
The patent for Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) treatment will expire on Saturday. Industry experts predict that the market for GLP-1 drugs in India could increase from the current 4-5% to 15-20% within the next 12 to 18 months, thanks to the availability of more affordable generic options.
Major companies are set to produce generic medications. Experts believe that with the launch of generic Semaglutide, the market for this treatment will extend from major cities to smaller towns and cities. However, the excitement among many pharmaceutical firms might fade quickly. The success in this field will hinge on the robustness of their ‘cold-chain’ (the system for maintaining the required temperature for medicines), the quality of the devices, and the extent of their network of doctors. Experts predict that in the coming months, only 6 to 8 major brands are likely to dominate the Indian market.
Companies preparing to roll out generic versions of Semaglutide include Dr Reddy’s, Sun Pharma, Eris, Zydus, Mankind, Alkem, MSN Laboratories, Intas Pharma, and Micro Labs. Experts have shared their insights in a report by ET. Neeraj Tulara, founder of Bookurdoc Specialty Clinics and a diabetes expert, stated, “Only 5 to 10 major brands will make it. This means that only the larger Indian companies will thrive, while the rest will likely fade away.” He added, “Factors like the quality of the device, cold-chain management, after-sales support for patients, and new technologies such as injection methods and ease of use will be crucial.”
Rajiv Kovil, a Mumbai-based diabetes expert, said, “Many of these companies have tremendous capacity to manufacture branded generic drugs. But this is the first time they are manufacturing biologics, which require a cold chain for proper storage. When the patent expires tomorrow, the real challenge will be managing the back-end. That is, the entire process, from maintaining the cold chain to strengthening the supply of medicines, will definitely be done.”
Industry data shows that the use of GLP-1 drugs in India remains low. They reach only 5% of people with diabetes and 4% of people with obesity. This leaves a huge, untapped market in a country with over 100 million diabetics and 250 million obese people.
According to industry estimates, the current value of the anti-obesity market in India is Rs 1,500 crore (approximately $1.5 billion). It is expected to reach Rs 4,000–5,000 crore (approximately $5 billion) in the next 12–24 months and Rs 8,000 crore (approximately $8 billion) by 2030. Generic drugmakers are expected to launch their versions of semaglutide at a price of Rs 3,000–5,000 (approximately $5 billion), less than half the price of the original drug (innovator molecule).
Novo’s Ozempic costs Rs 8,800 to Rs 11,175, while its other semaglutide brand, Wegovy, costs Rs 10,850 to Rs 16,400 per month. In comparison, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, tirzepatide, costs Rs 13,000 to Rs 26,000 per injection, depending on the dose. Each injection consists of four monthly shots.