Market Analysis by Thadeu Dos Santos

– March 12, 2026 –

“WTI crude futures climbed into the low-to-mid USD 90s on Thursday, extending gains amid escalating Middle East tensions and renewed concerns about disruptions to physical supply and shipping. Markets remain focused on risks to flows through key transit routes, following attacks on commercial vessels and heightened uncertainty around regional energy infrastructure, even as major economies discuss or approve strategic reserve releases.

Higher oil prices are feeding into inflation concerns globally, prompting markets to reassess the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. U.S. Treasury yields have moved higher in recent sessions, supporting the dollar and creating broader headwinds for risk-sensitive emerging market currencies, including across Latin America.

For oil-exporting economies, however, the picture is more nuanced. Countries such as Brazil and Colombia can benefit from improved terms of trade and stronger commodity-linked revenues, which may help partially offset broader risk-off pressure. In Brazil, elevated energy prices also add to inflation risks and could encourage a more cautious approach to easing, while in Colombia higher crude prices can provide a supportive backdrop via export revenues.”