The outlook for regional equity capital markets remains “constructive” as declining global interest rates, subdued volatility and the fading inflation cycle continue to support issuance activity, an expert said.

Barclays’ Head of CEEMEA Equity Capital Markets, Nikita Turkin, said global markets are entering a period that looks “largely more of the same,” with AI acting as a key structural driver and equities becoming increasingly attractive relative to debt. “We are in a scenario where rates are declining, volatility is muted… and there is a greater focus on equities rather than debt,” he said. After the post‑pandemic downturn, ECM volumes have steadily recovered, with 2025 finishing “at its highest level since then — broadly comparable to 2019.”

Turkin expects that momentum to continue. “Our house view is that ECM activity will accelerate. We expect more deals next year… the pipeline is as strong as it has been in several years.”

Across the GCC, that pipeline is particularly deep. The region saw a breakout year in 2022 and has sustained “a broadly solid run” since then, despite fluctuations. Turkin notes that more than 50 companies publicly rumoured in the press could consider IPOs, calling it “one of the strongest IPO pipelines globally.” IPOs alone accounted for 45 per cent of total ECM volumes last year.

Despite perceptions of a slowdown, activity remains robust. “Issuance was around $12 billion, similar to 2023,” Turkin said, adding that market share shifts were driven more by changes in Europe than by weakness in the Gulf. Barclays, meanwhile, is doubling down on the region, expanding research coverage, adding local sales teams, and securing a provisional licence in Saudi Arabia. The bank’s 50‑year history in the Gulf underpins what Turkin describes as a “long‑term commitment and confidence in the region.”

He also pointed to the growing sophistication of Gulf markets, citing the rise in accelerated bookbuilds, fully marketed offerings and rights issues. The UAE’s exchanges in particular stand out for their agility. “The authorities are quick to recognise when regulations need to be updated,” he said, praising DFM and ADX for a “commercial and proactive” approach that compares favourably with major European markets.

Barclays’ Head of CEEMEA Equity Capital Markets, Nikita Turkin

That dynamism is drawing interest from companies far beyond the region. “The UAE is increasingly being viewed as a credible listing destination… companies no longer feel they must default to a large international exchange,” Turkin said. He predicts that within a decade, firms from outside the GCC will routinely list in the UAE.

On oil price concerns, Turkin remains unfazed. Barclays forecasts Brent at around $65 through 2026, and investors, he notes, are focused far more on fundamentals than on crude. With the UAE deriving roughly 70–74 per cent of GDP from non‑oil sectors, diversification is firmly embedded. “There is a strong sense of optimism, ambition, and global orientation,” he said, pointing to regional companies increasingly pursuing international listings, such as AIR Global’s recent US debut.

Looking ahead, he expects cross‑border activity to continue evolving, with most companies preferring local listings but maintaining optionality between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. For businesses with strong US growth, US listings will remain relevant — but Gulf markets, Turkin said, are now firmly on the global map.