ITC shares down 12% this year: Buy, sell, or hold?
28 Dec 2025

ITC's stock price has been under pressure this year due to British American Tobacco (BAT) selling its stake in the firm, a 40% GST slab on "sin" goods, corrections in the FMCG sector, and caution due to ITC Hotels' demerger.

The stock has declined almost 12% year-to-date, compared to an 8% gain in the equity benchmark Sensex.

Over two years, the stock has declined by 6%, while on a five-year basis, it has given a solid return of 105%.

Expert opinions on ITC's financial performance
Analyst insights

Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, said ITC's financial performance highlights the strength of its diversified business model.

She emphasized that cigarettes continue to provide stable cash flows due to premiumization and demand resilience.

Despite facing import and cost headwinds, the paperboards and packaging business benefits from the policy support like minimum import prices and anti-dumping measures, improving its medium-term outlook.

Budget 2026's impact on ITC's business
Future prospects

Srivastava also noted that the focus of Budget 2026 on income tax relief, consumption push, and also front-loaded government spending is likely to boost affordability and demand over the medium term.

She said, "Strong balance sheet, sustainability leadership, diversified earnings and steady cash generation make ITC well-positioned for long-term investors seeking stability with gradual growth."

ITC's growth potential and market challenges
Market analysis

Divya Agrawal, a Research Analyst and Advisory (Fundamental), Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, has a buy call on ITC with a target price of ₹515.

She cited that despite margin pressure from higher raw material costs, these are expected to ease and support profitability going forward.

Stock performance and market outlook
Stock trends

Jigar S. Patel, a Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, said ITC is tipped to trade within a well-defined range in the short term.

He noted that the share has established a solid support base near ₹398 which is likely to act as a key demand zone during any corrective phase.

On the upside, immediate resistance is placed around ₹412 with potential bullish momentum toward ₹418 if broken decisively.