Sensex, Nifty: Fed rate cut & cues for Indian stock market While the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty opened higher on Thursday, following an overnight Fed rate cut, the gains were capped.
Stock analysts and economists noted that the 25 basis points Fed rate cut was largely in line with estimates, and dot plot suggesting two rate cuts this calendar, was positive. That said, the Fed commentary was hawkish. While some see no further near-term rate cuts, others see the kick start of a long rate cut cycle. On Thursday, the BSE Sensex was trading at 83,045.55, up 351.84 points or 0.43 per cent. Nifty rose 86.70 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 25,416.95. Despite the dovish revision to the expected rate path, economic projections were surprisingly hawkish, Nomura said. This suggests a low threshold for delivering additional 'insurance cuts' in the near term and less vigilance on inflation risks, it added. JM Financial said the expectations of resilient growth, weak labour market and elevated inflation in the summary of economic projections, leaves limited room for policy easing. The futures market is building in two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, which the brokerage believes will narrow down to one. "The more dovish forward-looking dots and median forecast (for two more cuts this year) were tempered by a hawkish Powell's presser - downplaying the dots and characterizing this move as "risk management", casting doubt on whether this cut is necessarily the start of a long easing cycle. Data dependency considerations remain amid inflation-growth trade-off, as "there are no risk-free paths now," Emkay Global said. Nomura noted that there was only one dissent (Governor Miran). Governor Waller voted for the 25 basis points cut, which might lower his likelihood of being nominated as Fed chair. "We have revised our forecast and now expect two additional cuts this year. Less emphasis on inflation risks and a likely shift in Fed leadership next year leads us to forecast three additional cuts in 2026 in March, June, and September. We had previously expected the easing cycle to end after March," Nomura said. Emkay Global said while Powell threw cold water on the idea that the Fed is embarking on an extended set of cuts, it does not rule out back-to-back cuts till December 2025. The presser stressed a lot on downside risk to the labor market, and we think it would take a surprising rebound in job growth for them to stop with one insurance cut. "We note that last year's cuts were also risk management cuts, which open the possibility that the current cycle could end after only a handful of cuts, provided employment risks are not realized. The inflation oriented commentary was interesting as they expect not only the prices to stay elevated in near term due to tariffs, but also the expectation of inflation to stay higher than 2%, which is Fed's target inflation till 2027. That would mark a 7 year streak of inflation staying higher than target. Arindam Mandal, Head of Global Equities at Marcellus Investment Managers said the inflation-related commentary was interesting as the Fed expects not only the prices to stay elevated in near term due to tariffs, but also the expectation of inflation to stay higher than 2 per cent, which is Fed's target inflation till 2027. That, Mandal noted, would mark a -year streak of inflation staying higher than target. India impact Emkay Global said emerging markets like India may possibly capitalize on the brief tactical Fed easing window. The patchy global narrative on growth and tariff noise and a generally weaker broad dollar have allowed EM central banks, including the RBI, to be less focused on the forex fight and enjoy some policy flexibility on rate settings in general. "We re-assert that the RBI's focus on 1-year ahead inflation seems misplaced amid consistent domestic inflation undershoots in recent months, Asia's disinflationary bias, and global growth risks. Besides, the impending Fed easing could still give more breathing space to the RBI to ease. We maintain that rupee's weakness vs peers should be seen as an automatic growth stabiliser than a rate-easing deterrent," Emkay said.

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